Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: North America supplies most of these subscribers at present, but Asia Pacific will become the top region by 2019. This comes despite Netflix being unlikely to secure direct access in China and only making a limited impact in other major population centers such as India and Indonesia. There are some large SVOD platforms in Asia Pacific that have been active for some time, especially via mobile phones.
The US (127 million subscribers by 2021) will remain the SVOD market leader by some distance, although China (74 million in 2021 up by 34 million on 2016) will record strong growth to close the gap.
The report forecasts that Netflix will have almost 118 million paying subs by 2021 or 27.5 per cent of the global total. Although the number of international subscribers will overtake its US ones in 2018, the US will still contribute 44 per cent of its subs by 2021.
Subscription revenues for Netflix will double from $6.37 billion in 2015 to $13.14 billion in 2021. Despite growth elsewhere, North America will still contribute 52 per cent of its total in 2021.
Murray continued: We estimate that Netflix has distribution partnerships with 79 pay TV, telco or mobile operators across 44 countries. These partnerships include multinational deals with Liberty Global, Millicom/Tigo and Telia.
Global SVOD revenues will reach $32.18 billion in 2021; 18 times the $1.74 billion recorded in 2010 and up by $20 billion on the $12.20 billion recorded in 2015. Revenues will grow by $5 billion in 2016 alone to take the total to $17.46 billion.